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Economy & Business

SWOT4: A string of dangers

The last part of our imaginary consultant's basic evaluation

See the gun threat

 

Below, a catalogue of some of the threats the island confronts:

 

  • Relentless competition from abroad in a world of moveable labour and capital.
  • Serious threat from EU and OECD attacks on ‘tax havens’.
  • Serious threat from UK – potential abandonment or absorption of islands post-Brexit.
  • Failure to discuss extended cooperation with Jersey – a no-holds-barred frank exchange required on mutual cooperation. (Does the world need two Channel Islands?)
  • Failure to embrace concepts of ‘growth’/’development’/ ’progress’, reflecting a lack of foresight.
  • Failure to diversify tax base away from income tax.
  • Unrelenting demand locally for expanded public services.
  • Voter failure to recognise link between job creation/income/tax revenues/essential public services.
  • Incalculable long-term financial obligations:
    –Deteriorating dependency ratio (‘grey tsunami’) – older people living longer, younger people having fewer children, with bad consequences for public support
     –Financial collapse of Sark and/or Alderney
    –Cost of repairing sea defences (including Alderney breakwater) as climate change worries intensify.
  • Erosion of business confidence, particularly in air and sea links.
  • Unconfronted barriers to change – over-government, weak government, maverick deputies.
  • Populist reaction to progressive embrace of opportunities.

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